2018-19 Arctic cyclone season
The 2018-19 Arctic cyclone season was a below average season of polar cyclone formation in the Arctic basin. It was the fourth season of being tracked by the BNWC. This season officially began on October 15, 2018, and ended on January 7, 2019. This basin includes the Atlantic portion of the Arctic Ocean, as well as the Hudson and Baffin Bay. No pre-season polar systems formed in this season for the first time since 2014. For the first time, BNWC has the ability to issue advisories on systems that pose a threat to land that are not yet a polar depression or storm. This "Potential Polar Cyclone" system was first utilized on October 19, 2018, with Potential Polar Cyclone One. However, this system did not become a polar cyclone. The first polar depression of the season, Polar Depression Two, formed on November 6. Seasonal Forecasts Note: Users may submit predictions, either by editing the page or posting a comment. Pre-season forecasts On June 7, BNWC issued its first forecast for the season, predicting near average activity with 13-16 named storms, 8-11 polar cyclones and 3-5 major polar cyclones. On June 28, the BNMA released its forecast, calling for 12-16 named storms, 7-10 polar cyclones and 2-4 major polar cyclones. That same day, HTMC released its forecast, predicting 11-15 named storms, 6-9 polar cyclones and 2-5 major polar cyclones. On August 19, BNWC released its second outlook, keeping their predicted totals the same. That same day, LHC released its forecast, calling for 13-17 named storms, 7-10 polar cyclones and 2-5 major polar cyclones. Also on August 19, PWC released its outlook, calling for a slightly below average season with 11-14 named storms, 4-6 polar cyclones, and 2-4 major polar cyclones. RMA predicted a slightly above average season with 12-16 named storms, 6-9 polar cyclones and 2-4 major polar cyclones. In addition, FMC predicted a near average season with 12-15 named storms, 5-8 polar cyclones and 2-5 major polar cyclones. On September 24, MCHWS issued its forecast, predicting 12-16 named storms, 8-9 polar cyclones, and 4-7 major polar cyclones. That same day, MMC issued its forecast, predicting 13-17 named storms, 7-10 polar cyclones, and 3-6 major polar cyclones. DHC issued its forecast on October 3, predicting 9-15 named storms, 3-6 polar cyclones and 1-2 major polar cyclones. On October 7, GIHC issued its first forecast, calling for 12-16 named storms, 5-8 polar cyclones and 2-4 major polar cyclones. On October 8, MWHA issued its forecast, predicting 15 named storms, 9 polar cyclones and 3 major polar cyclones. Finally, on October 14, DWFC released its forecast, calling for 14-17 named storms to form, 9-12 of which would become polar cyclones and 2-5 of which would become major polar cyclones. That same day, M99MC released its forecast, predicting below average activity with 8-12 named storms, 2-5 polar cyclones and 0-2 major polar cyclones. Mid-season forecasts BNWC issued a forecast on the first day of the season on October 15, calling for 13-16 named storms, 8-12 polar cyclones and 3-6 major polar cyclones. On November 1, the PWC issued its 2nd forecast for the season, predicting a below average number of named storms. Seasonal Summary ImageSize = width:700 height:250 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:210 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/11/2018 till:31/01/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/11/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Polar_Depression_=_<39_mph id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Polar_Storm_=_39-73_mph id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Weak_Polar_Cyclone_=_74-95_mph id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Moderate_Polar_Cyclone_=_96-110_mph id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Intense_Polar_Cyclone_=_111-129_mph id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Severe_Polar_Cyclone_=_130-156_mph id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Catastrophic_Polar_Cyclone_157-194_mph id:C6 value:rgb(0.70,0.01,0.01) legend:Extremely_Catastrophic_Polar_Cyclone_≥_195_mph Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:06/11/2018 till:07/11/2018 color:TS text:"Advent (PS)" from:06/11/2018 till:13/11/2018 color:C4 text:"Bow (SV)" from:16/11/2018 till:23/11/2018 color:C2 text:"Carol (MD)" from:22/11/2018 till:28/11/2018 color:C3 text:"Dancer (IN)" from:28/11/2018 till:29/11/2018 color:TS text:"Abrianna (PS)" from:05/12/2018 till:12/12/2018 color:C4 text:"Elf (SV)" from:12/12/2018 till:12/12/2018 color:TS text:"Feast (PS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/11/2018 till:01/12/2018 text:November from:01/12/2018 till:01/01/2019 text:December from:01/01/2019 till:31/01/2019 text:January 2019 The 2018-19 Arctic cyclone season officially began on October 15, 2018, and will end on January 7, 2019. This is the fourth Arctic cyclone season to be monitored by the Bob Nekaro Weather Center. October was quiet with no polar depressions or storms, though Potential Polar Cyclone One was expected to become one. The first polar depression of the season, Polar Depression Two, formed on November 6 over the Baffin Bay. Two strengthened into Polar Storm Advent the next day, as the next storm of the season - Bow - also formed. Bow would eventually reach Severe Polar Cyclone status with 150 mph winds. Advent dissipated on November 7, and Bow dissipated on November 13. On November 16, the third named storm of the season, Carol, formed over the central Hudson Bay. The current Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2018-19 Arctic cyclone season, as of 03:00 UTC November 8, is 2.7275 units. Storms Polar Storm Advent At 03:00 UTC on November 6, Polar Depression Two formed over the Baffin Bay. Twelve hours later it strengthened into Polar Storm Advent. Advent made landfall in northern Nunavut at 03:00 UTC on November 7, and the small cyclone dissipated twelve hours later. Severe Polar Cyclone Bow Polar Depression Three formed at 15:00 UTC on November 6 over the Labrador Sea. Six hours after formation, it strengthened into Polar Storm Bow, the second named storm of the season. Bow was named just six hours after Advent. At 21:00 UTC the next day, Bow strengthened into the first polar cyclone of the season. Six hours later, Bow rapidly intensified into a moderate polar cyclone. On November 8, Bow strengthened into a severe polar cyclone with 150 mph winds, making it the first major polar cyclone of the season. Gradual weakening occurred over the next two days. Bow made landfall in Nunavut early on November 12, and dissipated by 12:00 UTC the next day. Moderate Polar Cyclone Carol A broad area of low pressure over the west-central Hudson Bay developed into Polar Storm Carol at 03:00 UTC on November 16. Carol steadily strengthened over the next day, reaching its peak intensity around 15:00 UTC on November 17 with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Intense Polar Cyclone Dancer Names used The following names will be used for the 2018-19 Arctic cyclone season. This is the same naming list used in the quiet 2016-17 Arctic cyclone season, with the exception of Elf, which replaced Evergreen. After the season, BNWC will retire names that caused significant damage and or/loss of life. Season effects This is a table of all the cyclones that have formed in the 2018-19 Arctic cyclone season. Damage figures are denoted in millions of United States Dollars (USD). Death and damage totals also include totals when the cyclone was post-polar, a low, or a polar wave. †The first system to be warned on by BNWC was Potential Polar Cyclone One, which is not a polar cyclone. The first named storm of the season, Advent, did not form until November 6. Category:Arctic cyclone seasons Category:Live seasons Category:Currently active seasons Category:Polar Cyclones